Abstract:From 2017 to 2020, 63 Ltl-6210 MC infrared cameras were grid-deployed in and around the Zhejiang Jiulongshan National Nature Reserve (Fig. 1) to study the Asiatic Black Bear (Ursus thibetanus) and other sympatric species. During the monitoring period, we obtained nine photographs and six videos of the activity of U. thibetanus from five infrared cameras and extracted seven effective pieces of information regarding U. thibetanus (Fig. 3). Based on our monitoring site data and records of U. thibetanus from literature, a total of 14 locations of U. thibetanus were confirmed in East China. Based on the habitat characteristics of U. thibetanus and correlation of climate factors, land use and seven habitat factors (mean diurnal range, Bio2; maximum temperature of the warmest month, Bio5; minimum temperature of the coldest month, Bio6; mean temperature of the wettest quarter, Bio8; precipitation of the driest month, Bio14; precipitation seasonality, Bio15; and precipitation of the wettest quarter, Bio16) (Fig. 2) were selected as the prediction background, and the potential distribution areas of U. thibetanus in East China were predicted through species distribution models. To develop an accurate projection for U. thibetanus, we used an ensemble modeling approach with 10 algorithms (artificial neural networks, ANN; classification tree analysis, CTA; flexible discriminant analysis, FDA; generalized additive model, GAM; generalized boosting model, GBM; generalized linear model, GLM; multiple adaptive regression splines, MARS; maximum entropy, MaxEnt; random forests, RF; and surface range envelope) using the package ‘biomod 2.’ We evaluated predictive performances of the 10 algorithms using two criteria parameters, true skill statistics (TSS > 0.8) and area under the curve (AUC > 0.9) (Fig. 4). Then, we selected nine algorithms (ANN, CTA, FDA, GAM, GBM, GLM, MARS, MaxEnt, and RF) to estimate the potential suitable distribution of U. thibetanus in East China. Our results showed that (1) 2﹣3 U. thibetanus are speculated to inhabit the nature reserve; (2) the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) and precipitation of the wettest quarter (Bio16) were the main environmental factors limiting the distribution of U. thibetanus (Fig. 5); and (3) there are three potential distribution areas of U. thibetanus in East China, including Zhejiang-Jiangxi, Zhejiang-Jiangxi-Anhui, and Zhejiang-Anhui (Fig. 6). In conclusion, these results can serve as basic information for strengthening the protective measures for U. thibetanus conservation in East China.